Ticker: $GIMO Exchange: NYSE Industry: Software Overview: $GIMO offers solutions that deliver visibility and control of traffic accross networks. It has a presence in the United States; Rest of Americas; Europe; Middle East and Africa, and Asia Pacific. (Source: Reuters) In January, $GIMO reported prelimiary Q4 results that caused a crash of almost 20%. Of course institutional downgrades soon followed. Now, the company is operating at it's "new" value, and looks to be at a fair price. This post will outline when to buy, and when to sell in an effort to make a short-term gain. Personally, I like playing options to get the most bang for my buck. That being said, I believe $GIMO will continue it's uptrend through to the middle of next week before it either peaks, or rallies, and here's why... Ichimoku Cloud: Figure A If you'd like to read up on Ichimoku clouds, check out this article. Otherwise, the TL;DR is that when the pink, green, and light-blue lines cross in to the purple cloud, there's a good chance there will be a rally of some sort. Aside from that, you want to notice the green line and how it is starting to trend upwards. This alone is not enough to say whether or not you should expect it to continue, but it's a good starting indicator... MACD: Figure B You can learn about the MACD over here. What you want to notice, is that the green line is starting to turn around, and the blue is about to as well. This would be a nice 'sweet spot'. Scroll down in the article to Figure 4 and look at the 2nd circled 'Buy' spot. Looks familiar, eh? TL;DR looks like it's trending up. Stochasitcs: Figure C This is the Stoachastic Momentum Index (SMI). We are using it as an indicator to tell us whether or not the 'run' is over ($GIMO has been green 2 days in a row now). Since the two lines look like they just turned around and are still near the bottom, it leads us to believe that there is still room to run. I personally think it'll be bullish through next week. More info on using this indicator can be found here Figure D This figure shows the Stochastics-Fast chart. Similar to the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI), this is to help identify whether or not the stock is overbought or oversold. More information can be found here. This chart is the LEAST desirable out of all the charts posted so far. Right now it says its approaching the overbought territory, so tread carefully! Conclusion: I believe $GIMO will dip or stay relatively flat tomorrow (Friday Mar 10th), this will give a little more leeway on the overbought territory which allows for a little more of a run throughout next week. So my play would be to wait for a dip tomorrow, buy, then hold through to Weds or Thurs next week for a small run. After a few smaller green days Mon-Weds, I think it will dip a bit, until the MACD levels out. Not necessarily to 'oversold' territory, but enough to run back up again and a little higher than the previous peak (seen in first chart around mid Feb). Well, I guess that's all. Let me know what you guys think, and if I'm an idiot that's gonna lose every last penny or not. Or if I'm doing everything wrong, etc... Otherwise, good luck and godspeed.
So I just saw someone else post something titled "Crush my dreams". Which I think is a great idea. I for one don't want to waste my time learning something that I can't ever be good at. I'm reading along and everyone is giving it to em. It seems the general consensus is "25% per year would be something only really good traders could achieve." Basically giving a very grim outlook to currency exchange. Especially something that is touted as something you can bring little money to and with hard work make a living out of. 25% on an initial $2000 investment is just $500. Which is definitely a lot more than someone would get putting their money in the bank but not really what you'd call making a living. I recently found this subreddit and really enjoy it. I've learned a lot from the 2-3 weeks I've been stalking it. I heard about Forex back in December from my mother in law. She was talk about it from a co worker. Since December I've been trying to immerse myself in this concept of forex. Scouring tutorials, books, videos, etc. I learn something new every day and I feel like I gain a new piece to the puzzle all the time, Still not quite ready to dump my own real money into it yet but I feel close. So the mother in laws coworker, who informed us about forex started back in August of 2014. That's when she invested real money. She trades mostly from her cell phone. No technical analysis from what I can tell. She's a very nice lady. Wants to help people so she offered to teach me what she knows. I cooked her up a dish as thanks and headed over. She told me how she found out about forex. She told me how she spent like $250 on a class that she felt ripped off because she lost part of her initial investment because the "teacher" didn't tell her about actually closing her trades. This is going to be a brief and outlined description of what she "taught" me the day I went to her place. Keep in mind I've been studying on my own for almost 6 months. -Candle wick is on the bottom? It's going to go up so buy. -Candle wick is on the top? It's going to go down so sell. -Trade USD/CAD -Trade from 8AM EST - 12PM EST -Don't trade from 12-1 (Lunch ish on the stock market?) -Don't trade on bank holidays -Don't trade if you're not going to watch it (she's basically scalping and I don't think she knows much about stop limits? idk) -Go to dailyfx.com and read the news. -Go to yahoo news and read the financial section. (Edit: This is an oversimplified explanation of what she taught. These were the main points) That was essentially it. Which don't get me wrong, there's some good info in there, but not exactly the education I expected to get from a successful trader. I asked her a couple questions and had used the terms support and resistance and she was like "I don't know much about the terminology but that's why I think you will do better than me because you're smarter than me." From what I can tell she just has some sort of instinct and can read the market really freaking well. So to really raise some eyebrows: Her initial investment in August was around $500. She lost about half on some bad initial trades. She has, since then, grown her account to over $23,000. I shit you not. I saw her trading station with my own eyes. I asked her just to confirm that she had not added any extra money since her initial $500 and she said no. Which is something like a 10,000-11,000% return on investment right? Like 1000% increase per month on average. She seems like a very genuine lady. She didn't charge me anything. She checks up on me regularly to see my progress. She says she just wants to help me and my wife get on our feet. She's very nice. I tried trading on the 1m and 5m charts and just found that the spreads were eating up my gains on the demo account. Not enough winning trades with enough pip change. What are you guys thoughts? I know this is probably going to seem made up, but had I not looked at her account with my own eyes I'd be calling bullshit, which was the main reason I wanted to go over to her place and have her teach me. Just to see her account and see if she was full of it... But it was in fact a real account. It was ready to be withdrawn if she wanted to.
I want to learn how to predict the market on charts...I am a pattern trader and i dont know how to chart anything.
I posted THIS before. If you read through it you can see that i am a pattern trader (not sure if this is the correct term for it) but that is how i trade and for the most part i am profitable and it works, BUT i want to learn what i see here, where people actually post their analysis on WHY they think a certain pair is going to move up or down and post it on the chart as to why. (NOTE: THE BELOW IS FROM A COMMENT I POSTED 23 DAYS AGO) My strategy is: For example right now I have a Buy on the EURUSD for .01 I am currently losing -8.14 at BUY 1.04730 I know when losing anything in the 7 dollar range to sell on my bigger account. It doesnt really involve time frames much as it does overall movement of a currency, currently the EURUSD is moving down. So thats where im going. I have 1 sell lot at 7 dollars at 1.04018 currently at $476 blue I have 1 sell lot at 6 dollars at 1.03980 currently at $1.92 Blue I have 1 sell lot at 5 dollars at 1.03896 currently at -$185 red I have 1 sell lot at 4 dollars at 1.03940 currently at $24 blue I have 1 sell lot at 3 dollars at 1.03944 currently at $33 blue I have 1 sell lot at 2 dollars at 1.03865 currently at -$136 red I have 1 sell lot at 1 dollar at 1.03833 currently at -$95 red my initital buy was at 1.04730, which is how i recognize the pattern. currently up $203 with movement for shorting The M30 and H1 frame are at peak so im expecting it to go back down to me losing about -$11.00 peak low on the smaller account because it has already hit that today for resistance so whatever that makes me for the day and im out (NOTE: THE ABOVE WAS FROM A COMMENT I POSTED 23 DAYS AGO) EDIT 1: Its more of a personal technique which i found works like 80-90% of the time for me so i understand why it wouldn't work for you. At least not immediately. I've been doing this for over 6 months so i have a bit more experience with this under my belt, and while im not an experienced Forex trader whatsoever. I feel like i have found what works for me. I hope what i wrote down help id take screenshots but im working at the moment What i want to learn is THIS Do i just go around www.dailyFX.com and see what they do or what programs do you use for those lines, how do you make an estimate of where exactly to buy and sell. Where you think the direction is moving and when you think its going to stop. TL;DR want to learn how to chart analysis for pairs, including exact BUY numbers, SELL numbers and where it is going to stop. Currently pattern trader. Dont use charts to analyze much apart from generic direction. Teach me senpais
Hi guys. I have recently ( a few months back) added index analysis to my forex toolbelt, and i must say it is a tool that any serious retail forex trader should look at. I have found it has increased my trading probabilities by a big margin. As i primarily trade with volume spread analysis, the lack of volume on index charts does make it a little bit harder, although the principles of effort vs reward are still apparent. I currently use DailyFX to assess my index predictions and see what the professional analysts are commenting. I was just wondering whether other traders out there use index forecasts, and if so, what website/provider do you use for forecasts and commentary? It must be said that i have no qualms with DailyFX, however, i am interested in knowing if they are the best in the opinion of other traders out there. Thanks!
Was the JPY interest rate change announcement scheduled at all?
I absolutely drooled over the action on the usd/jpy charts around the interest rate change announcement. However, I cannot find it on this calendar of scheduled forex announcements of the last week. Did the BOJ just release the news unexpectedly? If so, can anyone recommend a good swawker?
New to the forex world. Been working at it for almost two months now. Not profiting, but not loosing much either. Was wondering if there was something like this but for scalpers. I know swing trading and such gives time for charts where scalping doesn't mostly, but I wasn't sure if anyone knew of some famous scalpers who aren't behind a paywall of some kind.
James Stanley's "Fingertrap" Scalping Strategy (also good for longer term trading)
I posted this elsewhere a while back, but I thought I'd put it in /forex and not on the blog, because it's my absolute favourite tool in all of Forexland. James Stanley is a (very good) trader and educator at DailyFX (Twitter: @JStanleyFX). He's also very friendly and helpful on Twitter if you have serious questions. Here's the link to the original article but what I'm going to do is explain it in a little more detail, show you how James uses it, and then explain how I use it for finding entries on longer term trades and breakouts. There's also this helpful video you can watch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrxOiAhIlaQ Right, so before I explain what it is, here's a checklist for WHEN the Fingertrap strategy is effective:
Is the market trending TODAY? (short term trend, not choppy action)
Is it nowhere near a place it could? stop (important fib, trendline, the basic stuff)
Is it the morning of the NY session? (it works best during this time)
Is it a fairly active pair with a tight spread? (if you're going to be scalping)
If the answer to all those questions is yes, you're ready to go: 1: switch to an hourly or 2hr chart, so you can see what movement on the day is like. You should be able to spot a strong directional bias if there is one, and you may have already done analysis to find important support and resistance. 2: Add two indicators: an 8 period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and a 34 period EMA. I don't know why those numbers, and different combinations might work better on different pairs (EUJPY tends to throw a lot of false signals with this, as does gold, so it's worth experimenting). We use EMAs and not SMAs because they respond more quickly. Here I'm looking at EUJPY on 2hr chart, on 26 April 2013): http://i.imgur.com/9wqd36U.png 3: Is price clearly above or below BOTH moving averages (eg. it's a downtrend and price is below both, or an uptrend and it's above) AND has the 8 EMA crossed over the 34 EMA (crossed to the downside if you're looking at a downtrend). These two factors are a strong confirmation of a trend, if you need one. 4: Once you have confirmed that a trend is in place, switch to your preferred scalping timeframe. I usually use 5m or 1m charts. You'll now see that the 8EMA (which is the only one we're looking at from now on) hugs the price quite closely. 5: If we're in a downtrend, what we are looking for is for price to ideally break through some kind of support, and then to rebound to the 8EMA. It can push through it, even close a whole candle above it, but should eventually move back down below it. This is your signal to enter short. As you can see from the chart below (same time, 5m chart), it's essential that you determine that there is a trend first and not just some jumping around. http://i.imgur.com/pvjgeKg.png 6: The idea is to use relatively small trade sizes, and scale in and out of the trade rapidly. When price extends quite a bit away from the 8EMA, that's the time to take partial profits, wait for a rebound to the 8EMA, and then enter again. 7: The game ends when the 8EMA crosses the 34EMA again, and price is on the other side of both of them The idea is that, even with strong moves, there are quick pullbacks. This strategy helps to give you an edge in determining where those pullbacks are likely to stop. It's not perfect, but no strategy is. The point is that it gives you a higher probability of entering at a good time (buying relatively low, or selling relatively high), and it also means you can have a lower risk entry (being closer to the last swing high). Now, I don't get to do a lot of scalping because I have a day job, but I do use this for breakouts, and just any regular old entry as a matter of habit (unless I'm doing a fairly long term trade and 10 pips either way doesn't matter that much to me). What I will do is wait for a breakout or a strong move in the direction I want. Then I put my Fingertrap template on, and wait for price to "reload" to the moving average before getting in, placing my stop above a nearby swing high. My stop will always be placed while thinking about how long I plan to hold the trade. If I'm looking for a move in GBP/USD from 1.56 down to 1.50, I'm not going to place my stop above the nearby swing high on the 5m chart - I'm going to place it around 1.5650. So you have to use your discretion obviously. For example, I will be watching EUUSD very closely for a break of 1.3000 or 1.2950, and then employ it from there. For scalping, the nearby swing high is definitely a good place to put it - if the trade goes that badly away from you, you definitely want to be out. Give it a try, and let me know if you find it to be helpful! Let me know if you have any questions.
Japanese Yen Declines After Trade Figures Miss Expectations
This is an automatic summary, original reduced by 11%.
The Yen declined against the US Dollar following poor Japanese trade balance figures January's trade balance was - ¥1086.9b vs -¥625.9b expected and ¥640.4b previously February's FOMC minutes serve as top event risk for USD/JPY in the week ahead. See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the DailyFX SSI readings on the sentiment page. The Japanese Yen fell against the US Dollar as trade balance figures missed expectations. The data showed the nation's trade balance for January was - ¥1086.9b versus -¥625.9b expected and ¥640.4b recorded in December. While there was an initial USD/JPY climb, the excitement seemed to dwindle rather swiftly as these figures have limited implications for BOJ monetary policy. With a rather quiet week ahead, the release of February's FOMC meeting minutes will serve as top event risk for the USD/JPY pair. Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from IG. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc..
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook, (after a massively successful trendline bounce)
Last week I posted a potential trendline bounce setup on USD/CHF. You could say it worked out rather well. It took a couple of days to hit my target of 0.94, but I'm actually still in this trade, sort of. I've taken most off my position, and then added again when we returned to 0.952 briefly. Having said that, I was probably caught up in the heat of the moment, and 0.95 would have been a better re-entry point. There's also a case for the bears here, so let's look at the set ups for USD/CHF. 8Hr Chart: http://i.imgur.com/bZCNoTM.png That last 8Hr candle is a bull's worst nightmare, so why am I still in this trade? The break of the wedge is encouraging, sure, but the larger wedge top has halted advances for now. We could easily see 0.9500 or even 0.9420/00 early in the week if the dollar rally loses steam. But here's why it might not. That means it's time to... Talk About Fundamentals! Why did the US Dollar rally so much? There are a lot of ideas floating around. It wasn't broad-based risk aversion, although it looked like it if you were watching the Aussie and the Pound. What most likely caused it was the search for yield, as investors lost confidence in Japanese government bonds, and the US economy started to look even healthier. Good jobs numbers mean a chance of tapering QE sooner than expected, which is one of the only things propping up the riskier assets. Stocks didn't follow through, which leaves me suspicious. The Yen crosses were actually up (although in a much more muted fashion than USD/JPY). But the most telling sign comes from EUUSD. I'm gonna get a little ahead of myself here and take a page from Jamie Saettele's book (DailyFX). EUUSD and USD/CHF have always been highly negatively correlated. That correlation breaks down sometimes, but it's usually there. When we have highly correlated assets, we can look to the correlated asset for confirmation of a big move in the first asset. A good example is gold and silver. If gold makes a new high but silver does not confirm that new high with its own, then chances are the next move in gold is down. So if we get a night high in USD/CHF, we're looking for a new low in EUUSD. And we got it. Price went briefly down to 1.2950. Here's the 8hr chart of EUUSD showing USD/CHF in white: http://i.imgur.com/Xmcn3Bq.png So the next move for both of these, in the medium term, is probably a continuation of Friday's moves. However, as you can see EUUSD looks to be bouncing off its trendline, and USD/CHF failed to break close above the larger wedge top. This leaves some doubt as to this week's likely moves. USD/CHF Trade Set Ups There's a case for both bulls and bears. If you believe that this dollar move was impulsive and likely to retrace, there are sell signals aplenty. Trade would be simple: Sell at market, with a stop above 0.963, targeting 0.945 initially (former wedge top which could act as interim support) and then 0.9300 (ascending wedge bottom). However, I believe that what is happening is something of a paradigm shift, as investors finally start to click that their best chance of reliable yield is in US Treasuries. I would like to see the move confirmed by a EUUSD trendline break, and a similar move from the S&P500. If we do get that, expect the larger wedge to break, and for this pair to enjoy a lot more upside. I am currently long from 0.9271. I took a third off at 0.94, another third off at 0.9550, my final target is open, and I am so fucking smug right now. I added at 0.9520, and will add a final third (bringing me back to the original position size) if we see the 0.9500/0.9460 area again. I intend to hold this trade until I am stopped out, either by a full retracement, or because my trailing stop was hit. I will trail the stop manually whenever new lows are formed. This means I will be trailed out by the creation of a lower low - an indication that party time is over. Happy trading!
ECN. Used most by professional traders. Difficult platform for beginners
Minimum deposit $10000 (or $3,000 if under 25yo) * Well diversified -Oanda
Market maker. Second largest retail FX brokerage in the US. Easy platform for beginners.
No minimum deposit
Not well diversified, but well capitalized -Gain Capital (whitelabel forex.com) *Market Maker *Fair spreads *Minimum deposit $250 *Well diversified -FXCM Inc
ECN. Largest retail FX brokerage in the US
Minimum deposit $2000
Not well diversified. CAUTION: FXCM nearly went bankrupt in Jan-2015 due to a lack of diversification and low capitalisation. As a result FXCM LLC was bailed out with a large loan which may prove difficult to pay back. Be warned that their business may not be sustainable in the long term. -MBTrading
ECN. Mid-sized retail FX brokerage
Minimum deposit $400
International Only- -LMAX (whitelabel DarwinEx) *DMA broker based in the UK. Note that as a DMA broker LMAX eliminates the ability for LPs to last-look transactions. This may result in reduced liquidity during volatile times as liquidity providers would be likely not to risk posting liquidity to LMAX's pool. *Tight spreads *Minimum deposit $10,000 *Fairly well diversified -Dukascopy *ECN based in Switzerland, but available elsewhere depending on local regulations. *Tight spreads *Minimum deposit $100 *Fairly well diversified -IC Markets *ECN based in Australia *Fair spreads on standard account, tight spreads on professional accounts. *Minimum deposit $200 *Fairly well diversified -Pepperstone *ECN broker based in Australia. *Fair spreads on standard account, tight spreads on professional accounts. *Minimum deposit $200 *Not well diversified Software / Apps: Desktop/mobile
Apps are typically broker dependent. Some brokers have their own proprietary software, while others lease common software like Metatrader or NinjaTrader. Some software has a large development community for indicators and EAs.
Terminology/Acronyms: www.forexlive.com/ForexJargon - Common terms and acronyms FAQ: I need to exchange money, how do I do it? This isn’t what this sub is for. Your best bet is using your bank or an online exchange service. Be prepared to pay a hefty fee. I have money in one currency and need to exchange it into another sometime in the future, should I wait? Don’t ask us this. We speculate intraday in FX and shouldn’t be relied on to tell you what’s best for you. Exchange the money when you need it. I have an FX account, should I start trading demo or live? This is highly debatable. You should definitely demo trade until you have mastered how to use the trading platform on desktop and mobile. After that it’s up to you. Many think that the psychology of trading live vs demo trading is massively different. So it may pay to learn to trade live. Just be warned that most FX traders lose almost their entire first account so start with a low affordable balance. What’s money management? Money management is a form of risk management and is arguably the most important aspect of your trading when it comes to long term survival. You should always enter trades with a stop loss - the distance of the stop allows you to calculate how large of a percent of your account balance will be lost if your trade stops out. You can run a monte carlo simulation to figure out the risk of having a number of trades go against you in a row to drain your account. The general rule is that you should only risk losing 1-4% of your account per trade entered. More on this here: www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/fxmoneymgmt.asp www.swing-trade-stocks.com/money-management.html What about automated trading? Retail FX traders have been known to program “Expert Advisors” (EAs) to automate trading. It’s generally advisable to stay away from that until you’re very experienced. Never buy an EA from a developer because the vast majority of them are scams. What indicators are best? That’s up to you to test and find out. Many in this forum dislike oscillating indicators since they fail to capture the essence of what moves price. With experience you will discover what works best for you. In my experience indicators that are most popular with professional traders are those that provide trading “levels” such as pivot points, fibonacci, moving averages, trendlines, etc. What timeframe should I trade? Price action can vary in different timeframes. In longer term timeframes the price action and fundamentals are much more clear. Unfortunately it would take a very long time to figure out whether or not what you’re doing is successful on longer timeframes. In shorter timeframes you can often tell very quickly if what you’re doing is profitable. Unfortunately there’s a lot more “noise” on these levels which can prove deceptive for those trying to learn. Therefore the best bet is to use a multi-timeframe analysis, working from top-down to come up with trades. Should I trade using fundamental analysis (FA) of technical analysis (TA)? This is a long standing argument in these forums and elsewhere. I’ll settle it here - you should have an understanding of both. Yes there are traders who blindly ignore one of the other but a truly well rounded trader should understand and implement both into the analysis. The market is driven in the longer term through FA. But TA is necessary to give traders a place to enter and exit trades from a psychological risk/reward standpoint. I’ve heard trading Binary Options is an easy way to make money? The general advice is to stay away from binaries. The structure of binary options is so that when you lose the broker wins. This incentive has created a very scammy industry where there are few legitimate binary options brokers. In addition in order to be profitable in binaries you have to win 55-65% of the time. That’s a much higher premium over spot FX. Am I actually exchanging currencies? Yes and no. Your broker handles spot FX is currency pairs. Although they make an exchange at the settlement date they treat your position in your account as a virtual currency pair. Think of it like a contract where you can only buy or sell it as a pair. In this sense you are always long one currency while short another. You are merely speculating that one currency will appreciate or depreciate vs another. Why didn't my order fill? Even if price appears to cross over a line on your chart it does not guarantee a fill. Different charting platforms chart different prices - some chart the bid price, some the ask price and some the midpoint price. To fill a limit order price needs to cross your limit's price plus the spread at the time that it is crossing. If it does not equal or exceed the spread then it will not fill. Be wary that in general spreads are not fixed. So what may fill at one time may not at another.
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